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日前,达摩达兰教授独家授权翻译并发布其《市场思考》系列博文之《幸运颂歌:重新审视特斯拉的估值》。本文仅代表作者观点,翻译仅供学习参考,不构成任何投资建议。转载请获取相应规范。

被华尔街誉为“估值院长”(Dean of Valuation)的阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰是纽约大学斯特恩商学院(NYU Stern)金融学教授,代表作品有《估值的阴暗面》、《投资管理》等。1994 年,达摩达兰教授被《商业周刊》评选为美国 12 名最优秀的商学院教授之一。达摩达兰教授除日常教学工作外,常年受邀于各大全球性财经媒体发表评论,并为多家国际顶尖金融机构进行公司金融及估值的培训。

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

图片来源:coindesk 网站

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An Ode to Luck: Revisiting my Tesla Valuation

幸运颂歌:重新审视特斯拉的估值

Professor Aswath Damodaran

作者:阿斯沃斯·达摩达兰教授

Thursday, January 30, 2020

2020 年 1 月 30 日星期四

When investing, I am often my own biggest adversary, handicapped by the preconceptions and priors that I bring into analysis and decision making, and no company epitomizes the dangers of bias more than Tesla.It is a company where there is no middle ground, with the optimists believing that there is no limit to its potential and the pessimists convinced that it is a time bomb, destined to implode. I have tried, without much luck, to navigate the middle ground in my valuations of the company and have been found wanting by both sides.

在做投资时,我常常会成为自己做出客观分析和投资决策的最大阻力。 我的偏见(对事物的主观成见和观察到的先验概率等)束缚着我,而恰恰没有任何一家公司比特斯拉更能体现出偏见的危险。它是一家不给任何中立观点留余地的公司:乐观主义者认为其潜力无限,而悲观主义者则认为这是一枚注定会爆炸的定时炸弹。我曾试图通过对公司进行估值的方法去探寻那些中立观点能走通的路径,但运气没有站在我这一边:多空双方仍然都在拉扯我。

For much of Tesla’s life, I have pointed to its promise but argued that it was too richly priced to be agood investment, and during that period, Tesla bulls accused me of working for the short sellers. They did not believe me when I argued thatyou could like a company for its vision and potential, and not like it as an investment. When I bought Tesla in June 2019, arguing that the price had dropped enough (to $180) to make it a good investment, they became my allies, but that decision led to a backlash from Tesla bears, who labeled me a traitor for abandoning my position, again not accepting my argument thatat the right price, I would buy any company. I would love to chalk it to my expert timing, but luck was on my side, the momentum shifted right after I bought, and the stock has not stopped rising since. When Tesla’s earnings reported its earnings yesterday (January 29th), the stock was trading at $581, before jumping to $650 in after-market trading. It is time to revisit my valuation and reassess my holding!

在特斯拉上市后的大部分时期,我一直明确指出公司的良好前景。即便如此,我仍认为由于价格过高,它无法成为一项良好的投资。在此期间,看涨特斯拉的多头指责我为空方工作。我认为投资者即使不投资于一家公司,仍可以认可这家公司的愿景和潜力,但显然这些多头并不相信我的观点。当我在 2019 年 6 月以每股 180 美元买入特斯拉时,我认为这种低价足以构成一笔好的投资。这时那些多头成为了我的盟友,但我买入特斯拉的决定招来了空头的强烈反对:他们认为我见风使舵,并给我打上了“叛徒”的标签。类似的情况重演:我相信如果价格是合理的,我会买入任何公司,可这次轮到空头不接受我的说法。尽管我很想将这一决策归功于我的专业择时能力,但实际上这次是运气站在了我这一边:股票的动量在我买进之后就启动了,此后股价一直上涨,没有停歇。当特斯拉昨天(1 月 29 日)公开披露其财务报告时,该股的交易价格为 581 美元,随后在盘后交易中上涨至 650 美元。现在,是时候去重新审视我的估值逻辑,并重新评估我持仓的特斯拉了!

Tesla in June 2019: A Story Stock loses its story!

2019 年 6 月的特斯拉:靠故事而活的股票没故事可讲了!

It was in June 2019 just over seven months ago, when the sky was full of dark clouds for Tesla, as a collection of wounds, some internal and others external had pushed the stock price down more than 40% in a few months, that I took a look at the company and valued it at just over $190 per share:

七个月前的 2019 年 6 月,特斯拉的天空乌云密布。由于一系列的内部及外部负面事件,多种因素共同将特斯拉的股价在几个月内下压了 40%多。我当时对特斯拉进行了一些研究,并将其估值为每股 190 美元:

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

Download spreadsheet

下载 2019.6 Excel 估值模型

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaJune2019.xlsx

In arriving at this value, I told a story of a company that would grow to deliver $100 billion in revenues in a decade, while also earning a 10% pre-tax operating margin. One concern that I had at the time was that the debt load for the company, in conjunction with operating losses and a loss ofaccess to new capital, would expose the company to a risk of default; I estimated a 20% probability that Tesla would not survive. At the time that I wrote the post, I posted a limit order to buy the stock at a $180 stock price, and when it executed a short while later, some of you pointed out that I was not giving myself much margin of safety. I argued that the distribution of Tesla value outcomes gave me a much larger chance of upside than downside. At the time of the investment, I also described the companyas a corporate teenager, with lots of potential but a frustrating practice of risking it all for distractions.

这一估值背后所依托的故事是:特斯拉将在十年内实现 1000 亿美元收入的增长,并实现 10% 的息税前营业利润率。当时我担心公司的负债水平会使公司面临违约的风险,而连续的经营亏损和失去融资通道会让公司雪上加霜;我估计特斯拉挺不过去的可能性为 20%。在我写当时那篇文章时,我下了 180 美元的限价买入单。随后在我的订单被执行时,有些读者指出我并没有给自己留有太大的安全边际。我回应道:根据特斯拉估值的模拟测算结果的分布来看,上升空间明显要大于下行风险。在进行投资时,我还将该公司描述为一个“十几岁的少年”,虽然潜力巨大,但却令人沮丧地因为各种诱惑而冒着一切风险。

A Story Update, through January 2020

故事在 2020 年 1 月前有了新进展

When I bought Tesla, I had no indication that it had hit bottom. In fact, given how strongly momentum and mood had shifted against the stock, I expected to lose money first, before any recovery would kick in, and I certainly did not expect a swift return on my investment. The market, of course, had its own plans for Tesla and the stock’s performance since the time I bought it is in the graph below:

当我买入特斯拉时,我完全不知道它已经触底。实际上,鉴于该股票的动量和市场有关情绪的急转直下,其实我预期的是先遭受亏损,可能的话再触底反弹。我肯定没有奢望这一投资能快速获得回报。当然,市场对特斯拉有自己的想法。自我买入以来,该股的走势如下图所示:

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

One of my concerns, as an investor, is that I can sometimesmistake dumb luck for skill, but in this case, I am operating under illusions. The timing on this investment was pure luck, but I am not complaining. What happened to cause the turnaround. There were three factors that fed into the upward spiral in the stock price:

我作为投资者的顾虑之一是,有时我可能会把“傻人有傻福”的幸运结果幻想为是我的专业技能所致,但这一次,我选择相信自己的幻想。虽然进行这项投资的择时纯粹是靠运气,我没什么好解释的,但导致股价震荡上涨的因素有三个:

Return to growth: In the middle of2019, Tesla’s growth seemed to have run out of steam and there were some who believed that its best days were behind it. In the two quarters since,Tesla has shown signs of growth, albeit not at the breakneck pace that you saw it grow, earlier in its life. 恢复增长:在 2019 年中期,特斯拉的增长似乎已经失去动力,有些人认为最好的日子已经过去了。然而在随后的两个季度中,尽管并没有早期那种惊人的速度,特斯拉依然显示出增长的迹象。 Operating improvements: One of Tesla’s weaknesses has been an inability to deliver on time and maintain anything resembling an efficient supply chain. In the second half of 2019, Tesla seemed to bepaying attention to its weakest link, focusing on producing and delivering cars, without drama, and even running ahead of schedule on new capacity that it was adding in Shanghai. 运营改进:特斯拉一直以来的弱点是无法按时交付,也不能维持至少看似高效的供应链能力。在 2019 年下半年,特斯拉似乎关注到其最薄弱的环节,专注于稳定地生产和交付汽车,甚至连上海新工厂的产能建设进度都赶超计划。 Radio Silence: I know that this will sound petty to Musk fans, butElon Musk has always been a mixed blessing for the company.While his vision has been central to building the company, he has also made it a practice of creating persions that take people’s attention away from the story line. He has also had a history of pre-empting operating decisions with rash missives (pricing the Tesla 3 at $35,000 and producing 5,000 cars/week) that led to operating and credibility problems for the company.Musk has been quieter and more focused of late, and the last six months have been blessedly free of distractions, allowing investors to focus on the Tesla story. 保持静默:我知道马斯克的粉丝可能会不爱听,但埃隆·马斯克对公司来说一直是喜忧参半的人物。尽管他的远见对公司发展至关重要,但他也使投资人的注意力从公司本身转移开来,造成干扰。他还习惯于迫不及待地将公司经营决策提前通过各种消息渠道释放出来(例如将特斯拉 Model3 定价为 35,000 美元,每周生产 5,000 辆),从而导致公司陷入运营困难和信誉问题。近来,马斯克变得更加沉稳而专注。 过去六个月市场没有收到来自他的任何干扰信息,从而投资者可以更加专注于分析特斯拉的业务本身。

In earlier posts, I have drawna distinction between the value of a stock and its price, noting that traders play the pricing game (trying to gauge momentum and shifts) and investors play the value game, where they invest based upon value, hoping for price convergence.While price and value are driven by different factors, in the case of Tesla, there is a feedback effect from price to valuebecause of (a) its high debt obligations and (b) its need for more capital to fund its growth.

在较早的文章中,我对股票的价值与其价格进行了区分,并指出交易员参与定价的游戏(试图与动量和价格偏离共舞),而投资者则参与寻找价值的游戏、基于价值进行投资并预期价格趋同于价值。尽管价格和价值受不同因素驱动,特斯拉的价格与价值之间则存在反馈效应,因为其(a)非常高的债务负担,且(b)需要更多资本来为其增长提供资金。

As stock prices rise, the debt obligation becomes less onerous for two reasons. First, some of it is convertible debt, at high enough stock prices, it gets converted to equity. Second, Tesla’s capacity to raise new equity at high stock prices gives it a fall back that it can use, if it chooses to pay down debt. By the same token, the number of shares that Tesla will need to issue to cover its funding needs, as it grows, will decrease as the stock price rises, reducing their dilution effect on value.

随着股价上涨,债务的负担减轻了。原因有二:首先,一些可转债在股票价格足够高的情况下被转股,而特斯拉被免于还付这部分负债;其次,如果特斯拉选择偿还其债务,高市值为其筹集新资金的能力进行了背书。同理,随着股票价格的上涨,特斯拉为满足其资金需求而需要发行的股票数量会有所下降,从而减少发行新股对价值的稀释效应。

Valuing Tesla in January 2020

2020 年 1 月重新对特斯拉估值

There have been three earnings reports from Tesla since my June 2019 report, and the table below shows how the base year numbers have shifted, as a consequence:

自我发表了 2019 年 6 月的文章以来,特斯拉已经披露了三篇财务报告。下表显示了基期数字发生的变化:

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

Tesla Quarterly Reports & Earnings Call on January 29,2020

特斯拉季度报告链接 & 2020 年 1 月 29 日的财报电话会议记录链接

https://ir.tesla.com/sec-filings

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/b3cf7f5e-546a-4a65-9888-c928b914b529

The base revenues have increased by about 9%, and operating margins continued to get less negative (turning positive in the last quarter of the year), aslong-promised economies of scale finally manifested themselves. In the table below, I highlight the changes that I have made in key inputs relating to growth, profitability and reinvestment.

随着期盼已久的规模经济效应的出现,特斯拉 2019 年报营收比 2019 半年报 TTM 营收增长了约 9%,营业利润率也在逐渐提升(在去年四季度由负变正)。在下表中,我标注了我对于增长、盈利能力和再投资相关的关键变量假设所做出的更新。

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

Download spreadsheet

下载 2020.1 Excel 估值模型

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaJan2020.xlsx

Specifically, here is what I changed:

具体来说,我做了如下更新:

Higher end revenues: My revenue growth rate, while only marginally higher than the growth rate I used in June 2019, delivers revenues of just above $125 billion in 2030, about 25% higher than the end revenues that I forecast a year ago.Since this will require that Tesla sell more than 2 million cars in 2030, I am not making this assumption lightly. 更高的终值收入:本次模型使用的收入增长率仅略高于我在 2019 年 6 月使用的增长率,但它将 2030 年的预期收入提升到略高于 1250 亿美元,比我一年前预测的终值收入高约 25%。由于这将要求特斯拉在 2030 年前销售超过 200 万辆汽车,我做出此假设是经过深思熟虑的。 Higher margins: My target pre-tax operating margin has also been pushed up from 10% to 12%, reflectingthe improvements in margins that the company has already deliveredand an expectation thatthe company will continue to work on a more efficient production model than conventional automakers. 更高的利润率:我所假设的目标息税前营业利润率也从 10%提升至 12%。这反映了该公司在过去半年实现的利润率提升,也反映出对该公司将继续以比传统车厂更高效率的生产模式来运作的预期。 More efficient reinvestment: My reinvestment assumptions for the long term resemble those that I made in June, with every dollar in invested capital delivering $2 in revenues, as the company adds capacity.In the near term, though, I assume less reinvestment, assuming $3 in revenues for every new dollar of capital invested, since Tesla contends in its January 2020 earnings call to have capacity online to produce 640,000 cars, enough tocover growth for the next year or two. 更高效的再投资:本次估值中的长期再投资假设与我去年 6 月份所做的假设相似:随着公司增加产能,每 1 美元的投入资本都会带来 2 美元的收入。不过,我假设近期的再投资会有所减少,且我假设每新增 1 美元的投入资本可获得 3 美元的收入。原因是特斯拉在 2020 年 1 月的财报电话会议上称,其目前生产线的生产能力是 640,000 辆汽车,足以满足未来一到两年的增长

If you are surprised aboutthe lower cost of capital in January 2020, that drophas little to do with Tesla and more to do with changes in the market. First, the US treasury bond rate has dropped to 1.75% from 2.26% in June 2019, creating a lower base for both the costs of equity and debt for the company. Second, while Tesla’s bond rating has not improved dramatically, default spreads on bonds have dropped over the course of the year. Finally, the price feedback effect has silenced talk about imminent default, but I understand that a momentum shift and a lower stock price can rekindle it, and I have halved the probability of default. With this more upbeat story, the value that I get per share for Tesla is $427, and the details are shown below:

如果您对2020 年 1 月时特斯拉较低的资本成本感到惊讶,实际上这一下降与特斯拉本身无关,而与市场的变化有关。首先,美国国债利率从 2019 年 6 月的 2.26%降至 1.75%,本身就降低了公司的股权资本成本和债务资本成本的基础。其次,虽然特斯拉的债券评级没有显着提高,但债券的信用利差在 2019 年中有所下降。最后,前文提到的价格反馈效应降低了近期违约的舆论压力,但我知道一旦动量发生变化或股价下跌,这些舆论将死灰复燃。同时,我将特斯拉违约的概率进行减半。鉴于这样一个更加美妙乐观的故事,我对特斯拉的每股价值估值为 427 美元,详细信息如下所示:

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

Download spreadsheet

下载 2020.1 Excel 估值模型

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaJan2020.xlsx

If your criticism of this valuation is that I am letting the good times in the stock feed into my intrinsic value estimate, I am guilty as charged, butI have never been able to completely ignore what markets are doing, when doing intrinsic value. To see how each assumption that I have altered feeds into the value, I broke down the value change into constituent pieces.

如果您批判我在进行估值的过程过多受股价上行影响而过于乐观,我并不否认这一点。但是在估计内在价值时,我永远无法完全忽略市场行为的影响。为了让您了解我做出更改的每个假设如何影响着估值,我将估值的变化按照各个假设变化而分解为不同的组成部分。

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

The biggest increase in value comes from increasing the margin, accounting for a little bit more than half of the value change, followed by higher revenue growth and then by lower costs of capital. Note that the firm’s debt load magnifies the effects of changes in the value of operating assets on equity value, and the options that had dropped in value with the stock price in June 2019, are reasserting their role as a drain on value.

估值的最大增幅来自对利润率假设的提高,大约占到整体估值增长的一半多一点。其次是更高的收入增长率假设,然后是更低的资本成本假设。请注意,运营资产价值变动对股权价值所产生的影响被公司的债务负担放大。同时,受 2019 年 6 月低迷的股价影响,彼时期权的价值相对较低。现在股价回升,期权价值的重新升高对估值的降低产生了重要影响。

If there is a lesson that I would take away from this table, it is thatthe key debate that we should be having on Tesla is not about whether it can grow. Given the size of the auto market, and the shift towards electric cars, the growth is both possible and plausible.It is about the margins that Tesla can command, once it becomes a mature company, which in turn requires an assessment of what the auto market will look like a decade from now.If you believe that an electric car is an automobile first, and electric next, it will be difficult to reach and sustain double-digit operating margins, if you are not a niche auto company. If, in contrast, your view is that the electric car market will be viewed as an electronic or tech product, you may be able to justify higher margins.

这一系列分析使我意识到我们应该关注的特斯拉的主要问题并不是它是否可以增长,因为考虑到汽车市场的规模以及向电动汽车的转型,这种增长既是可能的,也是合理的。我们应当关注的主要问题是:特斯拉一旦成为一家成熟的公司,可以创造出什么样的利润水平?这反过来又需要对十年后的汽车市场进行评估。如果您认为电动汽车的首要本质是“汽车”,然后才是“电动”,只要特斯拉不是满足利基市场某些特殊的小众车厂,就很难达到并保持两位数的营业利润率。 反之,如果您认为电动汽车市场是与电子产品或高科技产品更为贴近的,那么更高的利润率或许就可以说得通。

What now?

现在呢?

In the interests of transparency, I should start with a confession. I went into this valuation wanting to hold on to Tesla for a little while longer, partly because it has done so well for me (and it tough to let winners go, when they are still winning) but mostly because at a 7-month holding period, selling it now will expose me to a fairly hefty tax liability; short-term capital gains (less than a one-year holding period) are taxed at my ordinary tax rate and long term capital gains (greater than a year holding period) are taxed at a 20% lower rate. This desire to derive a higher value for Tesla (to justify continuing to hold it) may be driving the optimism in my assumptions in the last section,but even with those optimistic assumptions, my value per share of $427 was well below the closing price of $581 at the end of trading and even further below the $650 that Tesla was trading at after the earnings release.

为了透明起见,我应该做个坦白。我是抱着长期持有特斯拉的愿望来展开这次的估值的:部分原因是因为它自我持有以来的业绩表现很好(越赚越多时很难放手离开),但是主要还是因为基于目前七个月的持有期,现在出售股票我将承担相当高的税务成本。短期资本利得(持有期小于一年)以正常个税税率征税,而长期资本利得(持有期大于一年)的征税则要低个 20%。这种对特斯拉进行较高估值的愿望(以证明继续持有该股票的合理性)可能促进了我在之前的假设中包含的乐观情绪,但是即使依赖于这些乐观的假设,我每股 427 美元的估值仍远低于其 581 美元的收盘价,更远低于特斯拉发布业绩报告后 650 美元的交易价格

Could tweaking the assumptions give me a value higher than the price? Of course! I could raise my end year revenues to $200 billion (plausible in a market this size) and give Tesla an 18% operating margin (perhaps by calling it a tech company) and arrive at a value of $ 1,168 pershare, butthat to me is pushing the limits of possibility, and one reason whyI hold back on simple what-if analyses. A Monte Carlo simulation allows for a more complete assessment of uncertainty and in the table below, I vary four key assumptions (revenue growth, target margin, reinvestment efficiency and cost ofcapital) to arrive at a value distribution for Tesla:

那么对假设做些手脚是否能使我获得比价格更高的估值呢?当然!我可以将我的终期收入提高到 2,000 亿美元(以汽车市场的规模来说仍在合理范围内),并假设特斯拉的营业利润率为 18%(如果将其看作是科技公司的话),然后每股价值到达 1,168 美元,但这对我来说是把公司发展的可能性逼到极限,也是我不想做简单的情景假设分析的一个原因。蒙特卡洛模拟可以对不确定性进行更完整的评估。在下表中,我改变了四个关键假设(收入增长,目标利润率,再投资效率和资本成本),得出特斯拉的估值分布:

估值 | 特斯拉股价坐过山车,华尔街的权威专家觉得它到底值多少?

Simulation Results

下载 Excel 模拟测算结果

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaSimulationOutput.xlsx

At the price of $650/share, post-earnings report, Tesla is close to the 90th percentile of my value distribution. While it possible that Tesla could be worth more than $650, it is neither plausible nor probable, at least based on my assumptions.

在披露财务报告后特斯拉每股 650 美元的价格已接近上述估值分布模型的 90 分位。尽管特斯拉的价值可能超过 650 美元,至少根据我的假设来看这既不合理也不大可能。

A Post Script

最后再多说几句

Holding on to the hope that I could defer my sale of Tesla until June (to qualify for long term capital gains), I looked at buying puts to protect my capital gains, but that pathway is an expensive one at Tesla, given how much volatility is priced into the options. Reluctantly, I sold my Tesla holdings at $640 this morning, and as with my buy order in June, I don’t expect immediate or even near-term gratification.The momentum is strong, and the mood is delirious, implying that Tesla’s stock price could continue to go up. That said, I am not tempted to stay longer, though, because I came to play the investing game, not the trading game, and gauging momentum is not a skill set that I possess. I will miss the excitement of having Tesla in my portfolio, but I have a feeling that this is more a separation than a permanent parting, and that at the right price, Tesla will return to my portfolio in the future.

抱着我可以推迟到 6 月再卖出特斯拉股票的希望(这样资本利得就符合长期持有的低税率条件了),我曾考虑用看跌期权保护我的资本利得,但由于波动率过高(导致期权费很高),对特斯拉而言这将是项昂贵的操作。今天早上我不情愿地以 640 美元的价格卖出了我的特斯拉股票。正如同与我 6 月份买入的时候一样,我不期望短期内就能得到幸运的眷顾。价格动量势头强劲,情绪异常高涨,这可能暗示特斯拉股价会继续上涨。 话虽如此,我并不打算再继续持有了,因为我是来玩投资的游戏的,而非那种交易的游戏,况且根据对动量的判断来作决策也超出了我的能力范围。 我会怀念在我的投资组合中持有特斯拉带给我的刺激,但我有种预感,这只是个短暂的分别,并非永久的别离。 在未来遇到合适的价格时,特斯拉将会重返我的投资组合。

【油管视频链接略】

Spreadsheets:

估值模型及模拟测算列表:

My Valuation of Tesla in June 2019

2019 年 6 月我对特斯拉的估值

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaJune2019.xlsx

My Valuation of Tesla in January 2020

2020 年 1 月我对特斯拉的估值

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaJan2020.xlsx

Tesla Simulation (Crystal Ball)

特斯拉估值的模拟测算(需要 Crystal Ball 风险模拟软件)

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/TeslaSimulationOutput.xlsx

原文地址(墙):

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/01/an-ode-to-luck-revisiting-my-tesla.html

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【原文及翻译完】

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